This is the conclusion of Craig's article A PUNCHER'S CHANCE: Part 1

All the time he's boxing, he's thinking. All the time he was thinking, I was hitting him.

- Jack Dempsey

Now if you look at their common opponents, with the exception of Marquez, Pacquiao dismantled them much more easily than did Mayweather. Pacquiao knocked out a better version of Cotto than the one Mayweather went the distance with. They both went to decision with Mosley, but Pacquiao breezed through that fight where Mayweather had trouble early on and was almost down. Pacman took out Hatton in 2 rounds where it took Mayweather 10 to retire him. Pacquiao dismantled De La Hoya in 8 where Mayweather won a controversial split decision.

As for Marquez, Pacquiao has always had problems with Marquez and I thought lost the 2nd fight but was awarded the victory. This I believe was more a product of Pacquiao coming up in weight than a difference in skills. When Pacquiao was knocked out by Marquez for example he was pretty settled in at welterweight and it showed. I believe he performed much better technically in this fight than in his previous 3 with JMM. His conscious performance was a complete 180 than their previous bouts and then he got caught.

Mayweather on the other hand was the bigger fighter when he stepped in the ring with JMM and that also showed. That was the first fight I believe I saw Mayweather look as if he were the bully.

Freddie Roach and others have said Manny is in for the fight of his life. However, if you look at their last 6 fights, its clear Mayweather has taken the easy road. Maidana, Maidana, Canelo, Guerrero, Cotto, Ortiz with only Cotto being relevant before he took him on. When all the other fights were announced I simply wondered … why?? Ortiz barely crossed 25 fights at the time and no one thought he deserved that fight. Maidana got the fight simply because he beat Broner which isn’t much. Canelo was a monetary draw and Guerrero was a tough Mexican fighter to fight on Cinco de Mayo. Not one brought something different to the table to make you question the outcome of the fight.

Pacquiao on the other hand fought JMM twice, Bradley twice, Rios, and Algieri. Marquez and Bradley I believe were both solid competition for the pacman. Marquez because he has seemed to have Pacquiao’s number and Bradley he was a slick undefeated and avoided fighter. Rios was simply a product of the Marquez knockout and Algieri, I believe, was preparatory.

That being said, it could be fair to say that Floyd may be the one who’s in for the fight of his life. Floyd Jr has been kept pretty safe his entire career. Diego Corrales was expected to give him problems but Floyd coasted through that fight (some speculated Corrales cut too much weight). Aside from that fight though, it’s hard to pick out a time when going into a fight you may have labelled Mayweather an underdog. More importantly, I can’t recall a time where Floyd has fought someone he knew would be a danger to him, WHEN they would be a danger to him. In fact, when asked about his toughest fight, Floyd responded with Emmanuel Augustus, a man with a 38-34 record who was at the end of his career when they fought.

Yet Pacquiao’s resume is littered with dangerous men from Singsurat to Barrera (twice) to Morales (thrice) and more. More of a few other fights I would label dangerous as well simply due to Pacquiao’s size in comparison to the competition.

True confidence comes from testing yourself and winning. Mayweather has only done one of those 2 things. His entire career was built for him to win. Without taking away anything from his talent, it’s tough to see how good Floyd Jr actually is when he’s dodging B level punches from Ortiz or Guerrero. As my coach often says, “When you’re sparring someone with less skill, you should look like Mayweather out there!” Well picking opponents well is partially why Mayweather looks like Mayweather.

In concluding this assessment, I have to imagine this fight as the first Clubber Lang vs Rocky fight from Rocky 3(even though it already seems as if Mayweather has gone into desperation mode and began chopping wood ala Sylvester Stallone). Pacquiao being the younger fighter who has seemed to be hungrier for actual fights and Floyd being the older, more skilled fighter on paper who hasn’t really seemed hungry in a long time now.

So my prediction is Pacquiao via late stoppage or winning by a hefty margin on the cards. If Mayweather does pull this fight off I believe it will be by knockout but if you’re a betting man, there are a lot safer things to bet on than a punchers chance.